U4AOS2Topic 12: Factors affecting referendum success

Key Knowledge Dot Point:

1. Factors affecting the success of a referendum.

Factors that affect the success of a referendum:

1. The nature/clarity of the proposal.
2. Whether voters themselves are seeking change.
3. Education about the proposed change.
4. Bipartisan support.
5. Double majority provision.

The nature/clarity of the proposal:

1. Many voters, especially the general public, lack specialised knowledge about constitutional or legal matters. As such, when a proposal is suggested, whether it is complex or simple to understand becomes incredibly important. If the question being asked is complex or the proposed alterations to the Constitution are difficult to understand for most people, then people become hesitant to vote 'Yes' as they don't understand what they are voting in favour of. Conversely, if the question being asked is simple, straightforward and sensible, then people are inclined to vote 'Yes'.
2. For instance, in the 1999 referendum that sought to reform Australia's political system by making Australia a republic instead of a constitutional monarchy, posed the question: "A proposed law: To alter the Constitution to establish the Commonwealth of Australia as a republic with the Queen and Governor-General being replaced by a President appointed by a two-thirds majority of the members of the Commonwealth Parliament.' The wording of this was suggested to lack clarity, meaning that voters struggled to understand what it meant. Specifically, the part where it says that the president would be "appointed by a two-thirds majority of the members of the Commonwealth Parliament' caused confusion as some voters believed that they would no longer have a say in who the leader of the country was.
3. On a state level, premiers can also be influential on the voting outcomes since a majority support is needed in at least four states.

Bipartisan Support:

1. Bipartisan support refers to when there is an agreement between the government of the day and the opposition party on a particular proposal. Bipartisan support is important because it promotes political unity. This is important because voters typically lack strong knowledge of the Constitution and many of the amendments that proposals suggest. As such, people tend to vote in accordance with their political party or they may seek guidance from them.
2. Historically, bipartisan support has suggested itself to be a strong factor influencing the success of a referendum. The 8 successful referendums in Australia's history have all had bipartisan support. The most recent referendum, the 2023 Voice one, lacked bipartisan support.

Education about the proposal:

1. The Australian Constitution is highly complex, and most Australians lack knowledge about it and about the Australian political and legal systems in general. As such, this can pose a challenge for voters--especially those with limited understanding of the proposal--when they are asked to consider something about which they have little to no knowledge.
2. For instance, the 1967 referendum concerning First Nations people had a simple and clear message about why the change was necessary, as public attention focused on the fact that First Nations people were being treated as second-class citizens. This message was immediately appealing to the broader public, regardless of their level of knowledge about the Australian Constitution.

Whether voters themselves are seeking change:

1. A significant factor influencing the success of a referendum is whether the general population resonates deeply with the proposed change. For instance, the 1967 referendum was regarded as a "people's movement" because it was driven largely by the general population. This was because the 1967 referendum centered on fundamental human rights advocacy for First Nations people who had endured discrimination and unfair treatment for decades (and still do).

Double Majority Provision:

1. The double majority provision is very hard to achieve. This is evidenced by the fact that only 8 out of 45 referendums have been successful. As VCAA states, "the requirement for a double majority (more than 50% of voters nationwide and a majority in at least four of six states) make achieving a 'yes' vote challenging. This stringent provision ensures that only proposals with overwhelming public support succeed".

Note:

1. As per the 2024 VCAA examiner report, these are the acceptable factors that they give: bipartisan support, clarity of proposal, double majority provision, conservatism of Australian voters, whether voters are seeking change, and the level of public education about the proposal. The textbooks may present factors with slightly different wording, although they focus on the same ideas. Since VCAA has listed these factors in its examiner report, use the phrasing that it provides.
2. This topic is not an easy one to score highly in. In the 2024 exam, the question assessing this dot point (Section A, Question 3b) saw only 3% of students achieve full marks. Also, make sure you understand the impact that these factors have as that is what you need to be explicitly conveying in your responses.
3. In the key skills section of the study design, VCAA states that students must be able to "analyse factors affecting the success of a referendum." This means that the highest-order task/command word you can be assessed on for this dot point is analyse. 'Analyse' questions consistently pose difficulties for students each year, so it's important that you understand how to respond to them effectively.